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Successful day trading of index futures is something that actually requires less thinking to be successful and is more depending upon reaction. Most traders of index futures may have the right computers, fast internet connections, brokers that execute quickly, quality stock charting software and other software for trade execution, but most day traders, especially part time ones trying to get ahead, haven't focused on the most important thing in trading: mental psychology.The devastating effects of ignoring an understanding of how fear affects the day trader's mind will be their downfall always. New traders tend to focus more on getting a good trading system in place and they believe this will alleviate fear of trading, but the best system, even one with a 90% win rate will fail any trader who allows his fears to get in the way of following the plan. When day trading index futures, consistency is king. Being able to do the same thing over and over again, even though there may be period of time where it seems that this strategy is not working.
Fear enters into a day trader's mind when they fail to understand the big picture of statistics and focus only on what is happening right now. For example, a trader may have taken 8 trades on the Emini Dow this week and each one was a losing trade, even though their system told them the trade met the criteria to work. Now they are afraid to take another trade when the system tells them to. They may ignore the next signal to just see what happens and if it is a winner then they are frustrated that they missed it. Or they may wait and watch and if the trade looks like it might be a winner they will jump in far too late to take advantage of the movement and end up losing anyway. The reality is that a trading system that yield a 60% winning rate (which is pretty good), will also yield a 40% losing rate. This is not the problem at all. The problem is that in statistics, each trade is unique and the result is random, even though we have an edge, the outcome is uncertain each time. If our system generates 6 out of 10 winners, then somewhere, 4 out of 10 losers will crop up. However these losers or winners won't come at predictable times. They may come 10 in a row. But what is predictable, is that when you have a large enough samples of trades being taken the 60% winners will emerge overall but it requires that you stay true to your plan for at least 200-300 trades, preferably 400. By doing do you will understand that it's not just one trade, or one day or one week or month that makes you profitable as a day trader, but the larger amounts of trades taken that were taken exactly as your system told you. Don't waver and don't fear and you will be a winner in the end. |